⚽ WC 2026 Forecaster
Dixon-Coles score model · predictions locked before kickoff · GitHub
⟳ Tournament complete · Jul 19, 2026
Group Stage 72 matches · includes [r] retroactive
58%
42/72
Win/Draw/Loss correct
Random baseline: 33%
31%
22/72
Score in top-3 predicted
Random: ~5-8%
12%
9/72
Top-1 exact score hit
Random: ~2-3%
72
of 72 group games
Group stage matches
48 locked + 24 retroactive
Knockout Stage 32 matches · R32 to Final · all locked before kickoff
78%
25/32
Winner predicted correctly
Random baseline: 50%
34%
11/32
Score in top-3 predicted
Random: ~5-8%
22%
7/32
Top-1 exact score hit
Random: ~2-3%
32
R32 to Final
Knockout matches
Draw prob folded into H/A
Backtest (5,518 matches, 2018-2023): log-loss 0.8961 vs 1.0986 random · Brier 0.5265 vs 0.6667 random · 59% W/D/L accuracy. Matches marked [r] were computed after kickoff.
Match Predictions WC 2026 · from Jun 11
Date Home H% A% Away Top 3 scorelines Result W/D/L Score
Jul 19 🇪🇸 Spain 62%
38% 🇦🇷 Argentina 1-0 0-0 1-1 1-0 ✓ ✓
Jul 18 🇫🇷 France 55%
45% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1-1 1-0 0-0 4-6 ✗ ✗
Jul 15 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 47%
53% 🇦🇷 Argentina 1-1 0-1 0-0 1-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 14 🇫🇷 France 40%
60% 🇪🇸 Spain 0-1 1-1 0-0 0-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 12 🇦🇷 Argentina 61%
39% 🇨🇭 Switzerland 1-0 0-0 1-1 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jul 11 🇳🇴 Norway 41%
59% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 0-1 1-1 0-0 1-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 10 🇪🇸 Spain 74%
26% 🇧🇪 Belgium 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jul 09 🇫🇷 France 53%
47% 🇲🇦 Morocco 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 ✓ ✗
Jul 07 🇨🇭 Switzerland 33%
67% 🇨🇴 Colombia 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-0 (4-3 pens) ✗ ~
Jul 07 🇦🇷 Argentina 76%
24% 🇪🇬 Egypt 1-0 0-0 2-0 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 07 🇺🇸 United States 44%
56% 🇧🇪 Belgium 1-1 0-1 1-2 1-4 ✓ ✗
Jul 06 🇵🇹 Portugal 33%
67% 🇪🇸 Spain 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jul 06 🇲🇽 Mexico 35%
65% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 0-1 0-0 1-1 2-3 ✓ ✗
Jul 05 🇧🇷 Brazil 69%
31% 🇳🇴 Norway 1-0 2-0 1-1 1-2 ✗ ✗
Jul 04 🇵🇾 Paraguay 20%
80% 🇫🇷 France 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jul 04 🇨🇦 Canada 48%
52% 🇲🇦 Morocco 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-3 ✓ ✗
Jul 04 🇨🇴 Colombia 79%
21% 🇬🇭 Ghana 1-0 2-0 0-0 1-0 ✓ ✓
Jul 03 🇦🇷 Argentina 88%
12% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 2-0 1-0 3-0 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 03 🇦🇺 Australia 51%
49% 🇪🇬 Egypt 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 (2-4 pens) ✗ ✗
Jul 03 🇨🇭 Switzerland 66%
34% 🇩🇿 Algeria 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-0 ✓ ~
Jul 02 🇵🇹 Portugal 71%
29% 🇭🇷 Croatia 1-0 2-0 1-1 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jul 02 🇪🇸 Spain 81%
19% 🇦🇹 Austria 2-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 ✓ ~
Jul 02 🇺🇸 United States 84%
16% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 1-0 3-0 2-0 ✓ ✓
Jul 01 🇧🇪 Belgium 62%
38% 🇸🇳 Senegal 1-0 1-1 0-0 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 01 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 81%
19% 🇨🇩 DR Congo 1-0 2-0 0-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jul 01 🇲🇽 Mexico 52%
48% 🇪🇨 Ecuador 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 30 🇫🇷 France 79%
21% 🇸🇪 Sweden 2-0 2-1 3-0 3-0 ✓ ~
Jun 30 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 56%
44% 🇳🇴 Norway 1-0 0-0 1-1 1-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 30 🇳🇱 Netherlands 65%
35% 🇲🇦 Morocco 1-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 (2-3 pens) ✗ ✓
Jun 29 🇩🇪 Germany 84%
16% 🇵🇾 Paraguay 1-0 2-0 0-0 1-1 (3-4 pens) ✗ ✗
Jun 29 🇧🇷 Brazil 69%
31% 🇯🇵 Japan 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 28 🇿🇦 South Africa 28%
72% 🇨🇦 Canada 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 28 🇩🇿 Algeria 22%
57% 🇦🇹 Austria 0-2 1-2 1-1 3-3 ✗ ✗
Jun 28 🇯🇴 Jordan 4%
93% 🇦🇷 Argentina 0-4 0-3 0-5 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇨🇩 DR Congo 53%
16% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0-0 1-0 1-1 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇨🇴 Colombia 34%
35% 🇵🇹 Portugal 1-1 0-1 1-2 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 27 🇭🇷 Croatia 51%
19% 🇬🇭 Ghana 1-1 1-0 0-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇵🇦 Panama 6%
86% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 0-3 0-2 0-4 0-2 ✓ ~
Jun 27 🇪🇬 Egypt 49%
20% 🇮🇷 Iran 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 27 🇳🇿 New Zealand 8%
73% 🇧🇪 Belgium 0-2 0-3 0-4 1-5 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇺🇾 Uruguay 26%
46% 🇪🇸 Spain 0-1 1-1 0-0 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 27 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 39%
18% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 26 🇸🇳 Senegal 70%
7% 🇮🇶 Iraq 2-0 1-0 1-1 5-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 26 🇳🇴 Norway 23%
58% 🇫🇷 France 1-2 1-3 0-2 1-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 26 🇵🇾 Paraguay 24%
45% 🇦🇺 Australia 0-0 0-1 1-1 0-0 ✗ ✓
Jun 26 🇹🇷 Turkey 6%
86% 🇺🇸 United States 0-3 0-2 0-4 3-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 25 🇯🇵 Japan 34%
42% 🇸🇪 Sweden 1-1 1-2 2-2 1-1 ✗ ✓
Jun 25 🇹🇳 Tunisia 8%
73% 🇳🇱 Netherlands 0-2 0-3 0-1 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 25 🇨🇼 Curaçao 7%
74% 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 0-2 0-3 0-1 0-2 ✓ ✓
Jun 25 🇪🇨 Ecuador 19%
61% 🇩🇪 Germany 0-2 0-1 0-3 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 25 🇿🇦 South Africa 23%
47% 🇰🇷 South Korea 0-1 0-0 0-2 1-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 25 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 20%
53% 🇲🇽 Mexico 0-1 0-2 0-0 0-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 24 🇲🇦 Morocco 79%
1% 🇭🇹 Haiti 1-0 2-0 0-0 4-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 24 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 9%
69% 🇧🇷 Brazil 0-2 0-1 0-3 0-3 ✓ ~
Jun 24 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 53%
19% 🇶🇦 Qatar 1-1 1-0 2-1 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 24 🇨🇭 Switzerland 34%
35% 🇨🇦 Canada 1-1 0-1 0-0 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 24 🇨🇴 Colombia 64%
7% 🇨🇩 DR Congo 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 23 🇵🇦 Panama 21%
56% 🇭🇷 Croatia 0-2 0-1 1-1 0-1 ✓ ~
Jun 23 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 75%
6% 🇬🇭 Ghana 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 23 🇵🇹 Portugal 81%
1% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 3-0 2-0 4-0 5-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🇯🇴 Jordan 32%
42% 🇩🇿 Algeria 1-1 0-1 0-2 1-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🇳🇴 Norway 55%
19% 🇸🇳 Senegal 1-1 1-0 2-1 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 22 🇫🇷 France 96%
1% 🇮🇶 Iraq 5-0 4-0 6-0 3-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 22 🇦🇷 Argentina 74%
7% 🇦🇹 Austria 2-0 1-0 2-1 2-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 22 🇳🇿 New Zealand 33%
37% 🇪🇬 Egypt 1-1 0-1 0-0 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇺🇾 Uruguay 56%
9% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 0-0 1-0 2-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 21 🇧🇪 Belgium 74%
7% 🇮🇷 Iran 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 21 🇪🇸 Spain 72%
6% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1-0 2-0 0-0 4-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇹🇳 Tunisia 20%
58% 🇯🇵 Japan 0-2 0-1 1-1 0-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇪🇨 Ecuador 72%
6% 🇨🇼 Curaçao 1-0 2-0 0-0 0-0 ✗ ~
Jun 20 🇩🇪 Germany 69%
8% 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 2-0 1-1 1-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 20 🇳🇱 Netherlands 49%
32% 🇸🇪 Sweden 2-2 2-1 1-2 5-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 20 🇹🇷 Turkey 56%
17% 🇵🇾 Paraguay 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 20 🇧🇷 Brazil 95%
1% 🇭🇹 Haiti 3-0 4-0 2-0 3-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 19 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 16%
55% 🇲🇦 Morocco 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 19 🇺🇸 United States 33%
34% 🇦🇺 Australia 0-0 1-1 0-1 2-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 19 🇲🇽 Mexico 39%
28% 🇰🇷 South Korea 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 ✓ ~
Jun 18 🇨🇦 Canada 44%
26% 🇶🇦 Qatar 1-1 1-0 0-0 6-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 18 🇨🇭 Switzerland 69%
11% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 1-0 1-1 4-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 18 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 56%
17% 🇿🇦 South Africa 1-0 1-1 2-0 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 18 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 11%
64% 🇨🇴 Colombia [r] 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇬🇭 Ghana 36%
35% 🇵🇦 Panama [r] 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 ✓ ~
Jun 17 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 53%
20% 🇭🇷 Croatia [r] 2-1 2-0 1-1 4-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇵🇹 Portugal 77%
6% 🇨🇩 DR Congo [r] 2-0 1-0 3-0 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 17 🇦🇹 Austria 63%
11% 🇯🇴 Jordan [r] 1-0 2-0 0-0 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇦🇷 Argentina 78%
5% 🇩🇿 Algeria [r] 2-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 ✓ ~
Jun 16 🇮🇶 Iraq 4%
80% 🇳🇴 Norway [r] 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 16 🇫🇷 France 53%
20% 🇸🇳 Senegal [r] 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 16 🇮🇷 Iran 57%
13% 🇳🇿 New Zealand [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 15 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 8%
65% 🇺🇾 Uruguay [r] 0-1 0-0 0-2 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 15 🇧🇪 Belgium 46%
24% 🇪🇬 Egypt [r] 1-0 1-1 0-0 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 15 🇪🇸 Spain 85%
2% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde [r] 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 15 🇸🇪 Sweden 56%
17% 🇹🇳 Tunisia [r] 1-0 2-0 0-0 5-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 14 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 30%
30% 🇪🇨 Ecuador [r] 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-0 ✗ ~
Jun 14 🇳🇱 Netherlands 39%
31% 🇯🇵 Japan [r] 1-1 1-0 0-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 14 🇩🇪 Germany 94%
1% 🇨🇼 Curaçao [r] 3-0 2-0 4-0 7-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 14 🇦🇺 Australia 36%
28% 🇹🇷 Turkey [r] 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 14 🇭🇹 Haiti 28%
36% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland [r] 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-1 ✗ ~
Jun 13 🇧🇷 Brazil 52%
17% 🇲🇦 Morocco [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 13 🇶🇦 Qatar 7%
74% 🇨🇭 Switzerland [r] 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 13 🇺🇸 United States 44%
10% 🇵🇾 Paraguay [r] 0-0 1-0 2-0 4-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 12 🇨🇦 Canada 58%
10% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 12 🇰🇷 South Korea 29%
42% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic [r] 1-1 0-1 0-0 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 11 🇲🇽 Mexico 53%
15% 🇿🇦 South Africa [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 2-0 ✓ ~
▮ Home win ▮ Draw ▮ Away win  ·  W/D/L: ✓ correct   ✗ wrong  ·  Score: ✓ exact top pick   ~ in top 3   ✗ miss  ·  [r] computed after kickoff
Final Standings FIFA World Cup 2026
Team Final Odds Result
#1 🇪🇸 Spain 100.0% Winner
#2 🇦🇷 Argentina — Runner-up
#3 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England — Third place
#4 🇫🇷 France — Fourth place

How the model worked

The model ran 10,000 bracket simulations of the full tournament using match probabilities from the Dixon-Coles model — the same model that generated the per-match predictions above. After each completed result, the model was refit and the simulations rerun.

Model prediction shows each team's win probability from the final simulation run before the tournament ended.

All predictions were locked before kickoff — no hindsight adjustments.