⚽ WC 2026 Forecaster
Dixon-Coles score model · predictions locked before kickoff · GitHub
⟳ 2026-07-01 23:24 UTC
60%
49/81
Win/Draw/Loss correct
Random baseline: 33%
31%
25/81
Score in top-3 predicted
Random: ~5–8%
14%
11/81
Top-1 exact score hit
Random: ~2–3%
81
57 pre-kickoff
Predictions with results
81 total WC results
Backtest (5,518 matches, 2018–2023): log-loss 0.8961 vs 1.0986 random · Brier 0.5265 vs 0.6667 random · 59% W/D/L accuracy. Stats above cover all 81 completed matches. Matches marked [r] were computed after kickoff.
Match Predictions WC 2026 · from Jun 11
Date Home H% A% Away Top 3 scorelines Result W/D/L Score
Jun 11 🇲🇽 Mexico 53%
16% 🇿🇦 South Africa [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 2-0 ✓ ~
Jun 12 🇰🇷 South Korea 30%
41% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic [r] 1-1 0-1 0-0 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 12 🇨🇦 Canada 68%
7% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina [r] 1-0 2-0 0-0 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 13 🇺🇸 United States 52%
8% 🇵🇾 Paraguay [r] 0-0 1-0 2-0 4-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 13 🇶🇦 Qatar 8%
71% 🇨🇭 Switzerland [r] 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 13 🇧🇷 Brazil 42%
21% 🇲🇦 Morocco [r] 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 14 🇭🇹 Haiti 30%
34% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland [r] 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-1 ✗ ~
Jun 14 🇦🇺 Australia 40%
24% 🇹🇷 Turkey [r] 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 14 🇩🇪 Germany 93%
1% 🇨🇼 Curaçao [r] 3-0 2-0 4-0 7-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 14 🇳🇱 Netherlands 38%
32% 🇯🇵 Japan [r] 1-1 1-0 0-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 14 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 34%
27% 🇪🇨 Ecuador [r] 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-0 ✗ ~
Jun 15 🇸🇪 Sweden 56%
17% 🇹🇳 Tunisia [r] 1-0 2-0 1-1 5-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 15 🇪🇸 Spain 81%
4% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde [r] 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 15 🇧🇪 Belgium 49%
21% 🇪🇬 Egypt [r] 1-0 0-0 1-1 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 15 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 8%
64% 🇺🇾 Uruguay [r] 0-1 0-0 0-2 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 16 🇮🇷 Iran 60%
11% 🇳🇿 New Zealand [r] 1-0 0-0 2-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 16 🇫🇷 France 54%
19% 🇸🇳 Senegal [r] 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 16 🇮🇶 Iraq 5%
79% 🇳🇴 Norway [r] 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇦🇷 Argentina 72%
8% 🇩🇿 Algeria [r] 1-0 2-0 3-0 3-0 ✓ ~
Jun 17 🇦🇹 Austria 64%
10% 🇯🇴 Jordan [r] 1-0 2-0 0-0 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇵🇹 Portugal 77%
6% 🇨🇩 DR Congo [r] 2-0 1-0 3-0 1-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 17 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 53%
20% 🇭🇷 Croatia [r] 2-1 2-0 1-1 4-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 17 🇬🇭 Ghana 36%
35% 🇵🇦 Panama [r] 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 ✓ ~
Jun 18 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 11%
64% 🇨🇴 Colombia [r] 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 18 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 56%
17% 🇿🇦 South Africa 1-0 1-1 2-0 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 18 🇨🇭 Switzerland 69%
11% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 1-0 1-1 4-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 18 🇨🇦 Canada 44%
26% 🇶🇦 Qatar 1-1 1-0 0-0 6-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 19 🇲🇽 Mexico 39%
28% 🇰🇷 South Korea 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-0 ✓ ~
Jun 19 🇺🇸 United States 33%
34% 🇦🇺 Australia 0-0 1-1 0-1 2-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 19 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 16%
55% 🇲🇦 Morocco 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 20 🇧🇷 Brazil 95%
1% 🇭🇹 Haiti 3-0 4-0 2-0 3-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 20 🇹🇷 Turkey 56%
17% 🇵🇾 Paraguay 1-0 1-1 2-0 0-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 20 🇳🇱 Netherlands 49%
32% 🇸🇪 Sweden 2-2 2-1 1-2 5-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 20 🇩🇪 Germany 69%
8% 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 2-0 1-1 1-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇪🇨 Ecuador 72%
6% 🇨🇼 Curaçao 1-0 2-0 0-0 0-0 ✗ ~
Jun 21 🇹🇳 Tunisia 20%
58% 🇯🇵 Japan 0-2 0-1 1-1 0-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇪🇸 Spain 72%
6% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1-0 2-0 0-0 4-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 21 🇧🇪 Belgium 74%
7% 🇮🇷 Iran 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 21 🇺🇾 Uruguay 56%
9% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 0-0 1-0 2-0 2-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 22 🇳🇿 New Zealand 33%
37% 🇪🇬 Egypt 1-1 0-1 0-0 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 22 🇦🇷 Argentina 74%
7% 🇦🇹 Austria 2-0 1-0 2-1 2-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 22 🇫🇷 France 96%
1% 🇮🇶 Iraq 5-0 4-0 6-0 3-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🇳🇴 Norway 55%
19% 🇸🇳 Senegal 1-1 1-0 2-1 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🇯🇴 Jordan 32%
42% 🇩🇿 Algeria 1-1 0-1 0-2 1-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🇵🇹 Portugal 81%
1% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 3-0 2-0 4-0 5-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 23 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 75%
6% 🇬🇭 Ghana 2-0 1-0 3-0 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 23 🇵🇦 Panama 21%
56% 🇭🇷 Croatia 0-2 0-1 1-1 0-1 ✓ ~
Jun 24 🇨🇴 Colombia 64%
7% 🇨🇩 DR Congo 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 24 🇨🇭 Switzerland 34%
35% 🇨🇦 Canada 1-1 0-1 0-0 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 24 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 53%
19% 🇶🇦 Qatar 1-1 1-0 2-1 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 24 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 9%
69% 🇧🇷 Brazil 0-2 0-1 0-3 0-3 ✓ ~
Jun 24 🇲🇦 Morocco 79%
1% 🇭🇹 Haiti 1-0 2-0 0-0 4-2 ✓ ✗
Jun 25 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 20%
53% 🇲🇽 Mexico 0-1 0-2 0-0 0-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 25 🇿🇦 South Africa 23%
47% 🇰🇷 South Korea 0-1 0-0 0-2 1-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 25 🇪🇨 Ecuador 19%
61% 🇩🇪 Germany 0-2 0-1 0-3 2-1 ✗ ✗
Jun 25 🇨🇼 Curaçao 7%
74% 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 0-2 0-3 0-1 0-2 ✓ ✓
Jun 25 🇹🇳 Tunisia 8%
73% 🇳🇱 Netherlands 0-2 0-3 0-1 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 25 🇯🇵 Japan 34%
42% 🇸🇪 Sweden 1-1 1-2 2-2 1-1 ✗ ✓
Jun 26 🇹🇷 Turkey 6%
86% 🇺🇸 United States 0-3 0-2 0-4 3-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 26 🇵🇾 Paraguay 24%
45% 🇦🇺 Australia 0-0 0-1 1-1 0-0 ✗ ✓
Jun 26 🇸🇳 Senegal 70%
7% 🇮🇶 Iraq 2-0 1-0 1-1 5-0 ✓ ✗
Jun 26 🇳🇴 Norway 23%
58% 🇫🇷 France 1-2 1-3 0-2 1-4 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇺🇾 Uruguay 26%
46% 🇪🇸 Spain 0-1 1-1 0-0 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 27 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 39%
18% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-0 ✓ ✓
Jun 27 🇳🇿 New Zealand 8%
73% 🇧🇪 Belgium 0-2 0-3 0-4 1-5 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇪🇬 Egypt 49%
20% 🇮🇷 Iran 0-0 1-0 1-1 1-1 ✗ ~
Jun 27 🇵🇦 Panama 6%
86% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 0-3 0-2 0-4 0-2 ✓ ~
Jun 27 🇭🇷 Croatia 51%
19% 🇬🇭 Ghana 1-1 1-0 0-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 27 🇨🇴 Colombia 34%
35% 🇵🇹 Portugal 1-1 0-1 1-2 0-0 ✗ ✗
Jun 27 🇨🇩 DR Congo 53%
16% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0-0 1-0 1-1 3-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 28 🇩🇿 Algeria 22%
57% 🇦🇹 Austria 0-2 1-2 1-1 3-3 ✗ ✗
Jun 28 🇯🇴 Jordan 4%
93% 🇦🇷 Argentina 0-4 0-3 0-5 1-3 ✓ ✗
Jun 28 🇿🇦 South Africa 12%
56% 🇨🇦 Canada 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-1 ✓ ✓
Jun 29 🇧🇷 Brazil 56%
18% 🇯🇵 Japan 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jun 29 🇩🇪 Germany 73%
5% 🇵🇾 Paraguay 1-0 2-0 0-0 1-1 (3-4 pens) ✗ ✗
Jun 30 🇳🇱 Netherlands 52%
22% 🇲🇦 Morocco 1-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 (2-3 pens) ✗ ✓
Jun 30 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 40%
27% 🇳🇴 Norway 1-0 0-0 1-1 1-2 ✗ ✗
Jun 30 🇫🇷 France 70%
12% 🇸🇪 Sweden 2-0 2-1 3-0 3-0 ✓ ~
Jul 01 🇲🇽 Mexico 33%
29% 🇪🇨 Ecuador 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 ✗ ✗
Jul 01 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 69%
7% 🇨🇩 DR Congo 1-0 2-0 0-0 2-1 ✓ ✗
Jul 01 🇧🇪 Belgium 47%
23% 🇸🇳 Senegal 1-0 1-1 0-0 3-2 ✓ ✗
Jul 02 🇺🇸 United States 74%
7% 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 1-0 3-0
Jul 02 🇪🇸 Spain 71%
10% 🇦🇹 Austria 2-0 1-0 3-0
Jul 02 🇵🇹 Portugal 59%
17% 🇭🇷 Croatia 1-0 2-0 1-1
Jul 03 🇨🇭 Switzerland 52%
21% 🇩🇿 Algeria 1-0 1-1 2-0
Jul 03 🇦🇺 Australia 29%
27% 🇪🇬 Egypt 0-0 1-0 0-1
Jul 03 🇦🇷 Argentina 80%
4% 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 2-0 1-0 3-0
Jul 04 🇨🇴 Colombia 65%
7% 🇬🇭 Ghana 1-0 2-0 0-0
Jul 04 🇨🇦 Canada 28%
32% 🇲🇦 Morocco 0-0 0-1 1-0
Jul 04 🇵🇾 Paraguay 5%
66% 🇫🇷 France 0-1 0-0 0-2
Jul 05 🇧🇷 Brazil 55%
18% 🇳🇴 Norway 1-0 2-0 1-1
▮ Home win ▮ Draw ▮ Away win  ·  W/D/L: ✓ correct   ✗ wrong  ·  Score: ✓ exact top pick   ~ in top 3   ✗ miss  ·  [r] computed after kickoff
Tournament Winner Odds 10,000 simulations · updated after every result · 2026-07-01
Team Win % Likelihood Fair odds
#1 🇦🇷 Argentina 17.5%
4.7:1
#2 🇧🇷 Brazil 15.0%
5.7:1
#3 🇪🇸 Spain 13.8%
6.3:1
#4 🇫🇷 France 11.3%
7.8:1
#5 🇨🇴 Colombia 10.7%
8.4:1
#6 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 10.2%
8.8:1
#7 🇧🇪 Belgium 5.0%
19.0:1
#8 🇲🇦 Morocco 4.3%
22.3:1
#9 🇵🇹 Portugal 3.8%
25.3:1
#10 🇨🇦 Canada 2.2%
44.2:1
#11 🇺🇸 United States 1.6%
61.5:1
#12 🇲🇽 Mexico 1.3%
74.8:1
#13 🇨🇭 Switzerland 1.0%
99.0:1
#14 🇳🇴 Norway 0.9%
108.9:1
#15 🇦🇺 Australia 0.3%
293.1:1
#16 🇪🇬 Egypt 0.3%
321.6:1

How these numbers work

The model runs 10,000 bracket simulations of the full tournament, using match probabilities from the Dixon-Coles model — the same model that generates the per-match predictions above. After each completed result, the model is refit and the simulations rerun.

Win % is how often each team wins the tournament across those 10,000 runs.

Fair odds = 1/p − 1. If Argentina has a 20% chance, fair decimal odds are 4.0:1 — a £10 bet at fair value returns £50 total (£40 profit). Bookmaker odds will be lower due to their margin.

These are model probabilities, not betting advice.